Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Navigate the Streets | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enthralling Visage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rusted Warshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |